Asteroid Apophis Takes a Pass in 2036
After tracking asteroid 99942 Apophis with NASA's giant Goldstone radar dish, astronomers are now certain that the threatening asteroid has no chance of striking Earth in 2036.
Astronomers surely enjoy dramatic stories as much as the rest of us. But today they played spoilers with the welcome announcement that the sizable Earth-crossing asteroid 99942 Apophis will pose no threat when it comes near our planet in 2036.
Right now Apophis is in the midst of a rather distant yet much-awaited pass in Earth's vicinity, coming within 9 million miles (14½ million km) earlier today. It's been tracked for about a week byNASA's 230-foot (70-m) Goldstone radio/radar dishin California, and those observations have given astronomers the confidence to issue an "all clear" for the foreseeable future.
"Goldstone single-pixel observations of Apophis have ruled out the potential 2036 Earth impact," says Jon Giorgini, a dynamicist at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory. Based on revised orbit calculations, he says Apophis will then come no closer than about 14 million miles — and more likely miss us by something closer to 35 million miles. Moreover, the radar data have improved the asteroid's positional uncertainty so much that dynamicists can now accurately predict its trajectory decades into the future.
Apophis was discovered in 2004 by observers Roy Tucker, David Tholen, and Fabrizio Bernardi. At first, orbital computations suggested that this near-Earth asteroid, Initially designated 2004 MN4, had a 3% chance of striking our planet in 2029. About a year later, it was named Apophis, for the Egyptian god of evil and destruction. An apt name, don't you think? Fortunately, by then prediscovery observations had led to a revised orbit, which ruled out an impact in 2029.
But we weren't out of danger yet. A collision remained possible in 2036, and the chance of that hinged on the near-miss flyby in 2029, when Apophis will zip by just 20,000 miles (32,000 km) away. Were that to occur at a particular spot in space, what dynamicists call a keyhole, an impact would become very likely on the return visit in 2036. The problem is that the orbital specs of Apophis weren't known accurately enough to predict exactly where it would fly past in 2029.
Adding to the uncertainty was the extent to which a subtle force, known as the Yarkovsky effect, might be altering the asteroid's orbit. This effect is caused by the uneven way that a spinning body absorbs sunlight and then reradiates it back to space. Ground-based observers determined that Apophis rotates in 30.5 hours, but its exact shape and orientation are unknown. Conceivably, gentle but persistent nudging from the Yarkovsky effect might have pushed Apophis straight through the 2029 keyhole.
Again, says Giorgini, there's no longer any chance of that. The Goldstone observations have "shrunk the orbital uncertainties so much that, regardless of what the still-unknown physical parameters of Apophis might be, radiation pressure can't be enough to move the measurement uncertainty region enough to encounter the Earth in 2036."
Were this asteroid to hit us, very bad things would happen. Apophis estimated to be roughly 900 feet (270 m) across, and it would strike with the kinetic-energy equivalent of 500 million tons of TNT.
Just-released infrared observations from the European Space Agency's Herschel spacecraft suggest that the diameter of Apophis might be some 20% larger. "“The 20% increase in diameter, from 270 to 325 m, translates into a 75% increase in our estimates of the asteroid’s volume or mass,” says Thomas Müller (Max Planck Institute for Extraterrestrial Physics), who is coordinating the Herschel observations. However, his team's modeling assumes that Apophis is spherical — and the actual shape is thought to be elongated.
We haven't heard the last word on this little interplanetary demon. Goldstone radar observations of Apophis will continue through January 17th, and additional tracking is planned next month with the giant Arecibo radio dish in Puerto Rico. All that pinging should reveal the asteroid's shape and spin state, in addition to super-accurate positional data.
But the worry about this asteroid has only been postponed, not eliminated. The orbit of Apophis is not all that different from Earth's, and some day in the distant future the two bodies will either have a catastrophic collision — or an encounter so close that Earth's gravity will yank Apophis onto a new and significantly different interplanetary path.
source skyandtelescope.com
Astronomers surely enjoy dramatic stories as much as the rest of us. But today they played spoilers with the welcome announcement that the sizable Earth-crossing asteroid 99942 Apophis will pose no threat when it comes near our planet in 2036.
The asteroid Apophis passed within 9 million miles of Earth on January 9, 2013 — a preview of a very-much-closer encounter in 2029. Click here for an interactive version of this orbital view.
NASA / JPL
"Goldstone single-pixel observations of Apophis have ruled out the potential 2036 Earth impact," says Jon Giorgini, a dynamicist at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory. Based on revised orbit calculations, he says Apophis will then come no closer than about 14 million miles — and more likely miss us by something closer to 35 million miles. Moreover, the radar data have improved the asteroid's positional uncertainty so much that dynamicists can now accurately predict its trajectory decades into the future.
Apophis was discovered in 2004 by observers Roy Tucker, David Tholen, and Fabrizio Bernardi. At first, orbital computations suggested that this near-Earth asteroid, Initially designated 2004 MN4, had a 3% chance of striking our planet in 2029. About a year later, it was named Apophis, for the Egyptian god of evil and destruction. An apt name, don't you think? Fortunately, by then prediscovery observations had led to a revised orbit, which ruled out an impact in 2029.
On Friday the 13th in April 2029, a 1,000-foot-wide asteroid named Apophis will pass close enough to Earth (within 20,000 miles) to briefly appear as a 3rd-magnitude star in the night sky.
Dan Durda
Adding to the uncertainty was the extent to which a subtle force, known as the Yarkovsky effect, might be altering the asteroid's orbit. This effect is caused by the uneven way that a spinning body absorbs sunlight and then reradiates it back to space. Ground-based observers determined that Apophis rotates in 30.5 hours, but its exact shape and orientation are unknown. Conceivably, gentle but persistent nudging from the Yarkovsky effect might have pushed Apophis straight through the 2029 keyhole.
Again, says Giorgini, there's no longer any chance of that. The Goldstone observations have "shrunk the orbital uncertainties so much that, regardless of what the still-unknown physical parameters of Apophis might be, radiation pressure can't be enough to move the measurement uncertainty region enough to encounter the Earth in 2036."
Were this asteroid to hit us, very bad things would happen. Apophis estimated to be roughly 900 feet (270 m) across, and it would strike with the kinetic-energy equivalent of 500 million tons of TNT.
Using infrared observations from the Herschel space telescope, astronomers have estimated the range of temperatures on the surface of Apophis (350 Kelvins corresponds to about 170°F). However, the asteroid's shape is most likely elongated, not spherical.
ESA / T. Müller
We haven't heard the last word on this little interplanetary demon. Goldstone radar observations of Apophis will continue through January 17th, and additional tracking is planned next month with the giant Arecibo radio dish in Puerto Rico. All that pinging should reveal the asteroid's shape and spin state, in addition to super-accurate positional data.
But the worry about this asteroid has only been postponed, not eliminated. The orbit of Apophis is not all that different from Earth's, and some day in the distant future the two bodies will either have a catastrophic collision — or an encounter so close that Earth's gravity will yank Apophis onto a new and significantly different interplanetary path.
source skyandtelescope.com
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